How we estimate prices

Some manufacturers publish prices on every model. Others quote on request. This is how ourhouse.ie fills in the gaps — transparently, with the bands wide enough to be honest about uncertainty.

The short version

When a manufacturer doesn't publish a price for a model, we estimate one by averaging the published price per square metre from similar models — same country, same build type — then multiplying by the model's floor area. We show the result as a band of ±15% so you know it's an estimate, not a quote.

Plain English: Estonian timber-frame modular homes from 14 different brands cost a median of roughly €1,386 per square metre. If a quote-only Estonian timber-frame home is 30 m², we estimate €35,000–€48,000. The brand will eventually quote you something inside or near that band most of the time — but it's their number, not ours.

The training set

As of the last data refresh, we have 62 priced products from Baltic providers (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) that publish base prices on their own websites. We use them as peers when estimating quote-only products.

Median €/m² by country + build type (Baltic only)

Country	Build type	Peers	Median €/m²	Range
Estonia	Timber-frame	20	€1,386	€1,200–€4,366
Estonia	Concrete modular underground	12	€2,339	€1,997–€2,990
Estonia	Concrete prefab hexagonal	3	€3,990	€3,495–€3,990
Estonia	Steel-frame	2	€2,824	€2,474–€3,173
Latvia	Timber-frame	14	€863	€800–€1,424
Latvia	Foldable	4	€1,225	€625–€1,250
Latvia	Volumetric modular	2	€777	€709–€845
Lithuania	Volumetric modular	4	€1,648	€1,340–€4,167

The algorithm, step by step

Look for a direct peer group. If the model is, say, Estonian timber-frame, we pull every Estonian timber-frame product with a published price (n ≥ 3 required).
Compute the median €/m². Median, not mean, so a single outlier model doesn't drag the estimate up or down.
Fall back if peers are sparse. If we have fewer than 3 same-country, same-build peers, we widen to the country's full set (any build type) provided we have at least 4 — this happens for niche build types like ÖÖD's mirror-glass cabins.
Multiply by sqm. The model's floor area × the peer median gives a point estimate.
Apply a ±15% band. Rounded to the nearest €100, this becomes the displayed range. It reflects normal manufacturer-to-manufacturer pricing variance and trim-level differences.
Mark it clearly. Every estimated price is labelled "ourhouse estimate" with a link back to this page. Real published prices are never replaced or hidden.

Transport to Ireland

Every Baltic product on ourhouse.ie also carries a separate estimate for delivery from the factory to your site in Ireland. The two numbers are tracked separately because they answer different questions: "what does the home cost?" vs "what does it cost to land?".

The rate model

From	Base fee	+ per m² over 20m²	Two-module surcharge (40m²+)
Estonia	€4,000	€120	+€1,500
Latvia	€3,500	€100	+€1,200
Lithuania	€3,000	€90	+€1,000
Poland	€3,500	€100	+€1,200
Bulgaria	€5,500	€150	+€1,800
Ireland (domestic)	€800	€30	+€400

Lithuania is cheapest because Klaipeda has direct ro-ro ferry service to Dublin. Estonia is most expensive because most Tallinn loads route via Stockholm or Rotterdam then across the North Sea. Latvia sits in between via Riga or Liepāja. Bulgaria has the longest land leg.

The transport range is shown as ±25% on the published rate — wider than the factory-price estimate band, because shipping quotes vary more with season, fuel costs, and whether your site is crane-accessible.

What "Delivered to IE" means on /compare/: factory price (real or estimated) + transport estimate. Both numbers come with their own band, so a delivered figure like "€28k–€36k" reflects the combined uncertainty. The provider's actual quote will land somewhere inside that range most of the time, but a one-off site (cliff-top, soft-ground, no road access) can push delivery above the band.

What the estimate does NOT include

VAT. Most Baltic providers quote ex-VAT. Irish VAT (23%) applies on import.
Transport to Ireland. Handled separately in our delivery-cost estimate on each product page.
Foundations and site connections. Buyers usually arrange these locally in Ireland.
Optional upgrades. Heat pumps, kitchens, plumbing packages, premium finishes — providers itemise these on top of base price.

Known limitations

Small-sample build types are noisier. When we estimate using a fallback country-wide median (because the build type has < 3 peers), the band is wider in spirit than ±15% suggests. We're conservative about flagging these.
Build-type strings aren't normalised yet. "steel-frame" and "steel-frame-modular" are treated as different categories. Where this matters, the country-level fallback kicks in.
Premium finishes are folded in. If a peer set happens to include a brand that bundles luxury finishes by default, the median drifts up. Most Baltic timber-frame samples are mid-market so this is usually fine.
Sub-25m² and over-60m² are out of our core 25–60m² compare band. Estimates exist for them but aren't displayed on /compare/.

If you spot a bad estimate

The estimate is wrong if a manufacturer's actual quote sits well outside our band. If that happens to you, please tell us — we'll add the real number to the training set and re-estimate everyone else who sits near it. The system gets better with every published quote.

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